Limited launches in Dubai contribute to Dh70.8 bn deals in Q3 2026

In the third quarter of 2026, Dubai real estate recorded approximately 34,500 residential transactions worth Dh70.8 billion, witnessing a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) drop of four percent and 14 percent, respectively. Transaction volume declined by 38 percent year-on-year (YoY).

Property consultancy Savills attributed this fall to fewer project launches instead of weak demand, given that bulk of transactions was concentrated in the off-plan segment. Roughly 5,000 residential units were launched during Q3, compared with approximately 36,400 in the previous quarter. Furthermore, Cavendish Maxwell said in its Q3 report that off-plan sales accounted for 65 percent of the total transaction value and 72 percent of property purchases.

Ronan Arthur MRICS, Director, Head of Residential Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, said, “The Q3 2026 data captures a mix of recent and earlier buying activity, reflecting the time between a purchase being agreed and formally registered as a sale. This confirms what we have suggested before: purchasing activity became more measured, with buyers being more cautious in the weeks and months following the start of the conflict.

“While the fundamentals driving Dubai real estate demand remain, near-term activity will continue to be shaped by a number of factors, including the frequency and number of launches, regional uncertainty and a broader normalisation in buyer activity,” he added.

Meanwhile, the ready-property market demonstrated stronger momentum, with transaction values increasing from Dh21.3 billion in Q2 to Dh25.1 billion in Q3, highlighting continued demand for completed homes.

Average apartment prices stood at Dh1,817 per square foot, down 4.8 percent QoQ, while villa and townhouse prices averaged Dh1,523 per square foot, a decline of 3.3 percent. However, like-for-like analysis revealed more resilient underlying performance, with apartment prices declining by just 1.7 percent and villa and townhouse prices remaining unchanged. According to Savills’ report, this suggests that headline price movements are partly driven by changes in the type and value of properties being transacted.

Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency, Savills Middle East, said, "Dubai's residential market is becoming more selective following several years of strong growth. Buyers are placing greater emphasis on pricing, location, quality and long-term value, while developers are taking a more measured approach to new launches.

"What's encouraging is the continued demand for completed properties and the resilience of the prime segment. As the market becomes more balanced, well-located, quality homes that are priced appropriately should continue to attract interest from both end-users and investors."

The prime segment recorded sales of 669 homes worth over Dh10 million in Q3 against 871 in Q2 2026. However, apartment prices remained four percent higher YoY at Dh5,237 per square foot, while villa and townhouse prices increased 3.6 percent YoY to Dh2,791 per square foot.

Notable transactions included a villa on Palm Jumeirah sold for Dh260 million, a villa in Dubai Hills Estate for Dh252 million and an apartment at Aman Residences for Dh166 million, Savills reported.

As many as 112,580 property purchases worth Dh292 billion have been recorded to date, according to Cavendish Maxwell. Compared to the first nine months of last year, sales values are down 27 percent and volumes have dropped 23 percent. September alone achieved sales of nearly Dh23.2 billion across 10,300 transactions.

Rental Performance

The rental segment rebounded with about 181,900 transactions in Q3, up 16 percent QoQ, with new leases accounting for 44 percent of activity, compared with 36 percent in the previous quarter. Rental rates across selected communities showed early signs of stabilisation, although performance continued to vary by location as per Savills’ research.

Real estate portal and property classifieds platform Property Finder found that rents have eased over the past year, offering tenants more options to choose from. Among the ten apartment communities it tracked, nine registered a drop in rental value between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 and one stayed flat. Among villa communities, eight of ten recorded lower asking rents.

Cherif Sleiman, Chief Revenue Officer, Property Finder, stated that increase in apartment supply supported the ease in rental prices.

“In September 2026, the average number of apartments listed for rent each day on Property Finder was 55.1 percent higher than in September 2025, while renter enquiries grew 15.4 percent. With more homes competing for each tenant, landlords have had to reprice. On average, each apartment listing received 23 percent fewer enquiries than a year earlier,” he said.

The price fall, though, was gradual – from the peak median rate of Dh135,000 in December 2025 that steadily settled to Dh100,000 by June 2026. Downtown Dubai witnessed the highest price drop of 21.74 percent.

“Rents fell across every apartment size, so this is a genuine repricing and not simply more small units entering the market,” Sleiman added.

Demand remained strong for smaller, more affordable homes. Out of the ten apartment communities, studios or one-bedroom apartments attracted the largest share of enquiries in seven communities. In Business Bay, one-bedroom apartments made up 43.1 percent of listings but draw 48.7 percent of enquiries. In eight of the ten villa communities, three- or four-bedroom homes attracted the most enquiries, the portal revealed.

Villas, on the other hand, demonstrated dissimilar trends in performance across the tracked communities. Al Furjan noted a clear rise of 15.15 percent, owing the growth to entry of more five-bedroom villas into the market. Four-bedroom layouts, which were enquired the most, experienced the highest jump of 9.4 percent. Dubai Hills, on average, remained flat.

Prices are stabilising, Sleiman pointed out. “September shows early signs of stabilisation. The combined median apartment asking rent edged up from Dh100,000 in August to Dh105,000, and enquiries per listing improved for both apartments and villas. One month does not make a trend, but it is an encouraging sign.”

Residential rental contracts peaked in September, Property Finder’s latest data confirms. Ejari rental registrations, residential and commercial combined, reached 96,000 contracts, up 15.8 percent compared with August. New residential rental contracts, which exclude renewals, reached 31,200. The figure was higher than the corresponding month in 2024 and 2025.

According to the portal, UAE residential rent enquiries are now 53 percent above February, their highest level of the year. Apartment enquiries are 57 percent above February, and villa and townhouse enquiries are 36 percent higher. Among apartments, enquiries are around 50 percent or more above February in every bedroom size, with one-bedroom units strongest at 64 percent. By budget, enquiries for homes under Dh150,000 a year are more than 60 percent above February.

Unit Supply

On the supply side, approximately 50,000 residential units were launched during the first nine months of 2026, around 64 percent fewer than the same period last year, Savills reported. An earlier study by Cavendish Maxwell revealed that Dubai launched 28,000 new units across 124 projects in H1 2026, experiencing a significant drop of 72 percent from 102,000 units across 410 launches in H1 2025.

Shift in Focus: Timely Deliveries

While launches were stalled, developers recalibrated their focus to delivering homes on schedule. Deyaar has handed over 2,100+ residences this year, the latest being a collection of 711 units in October. Damac aims to deliver over 8,800 units this year, while Sobha Realty is set to hand over 6,819 homes. Mega-developer Nakheel completed nearly 890 units at Jebel Ali Village. Amwaj concluded its first project in Meydan. In September, Samana Developers announced that four of their properties are scheduled for delivery in 2026.

Looking Ahead

Phased launches and entry of foreign developers signal growing activity and positive market sentiments in the last quarter of 2026 and early 2027.

Danube Properties recently announced its second collaboration with Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan to build a Dh3 billion residential tower in Dubai Maritime City. Meraas launched an 18 million-square-foot masterplan in Dubai Design District. Cityview Developments, along with Accor, introduced 282 Pullman-branded residences that are scheduled for completion in 2029.

As per Dubai Land Department data, in the first seven months of 2026, 186 new developers launched themselves in the market, reinforcing investor confidence and long-term appeal of the real estate sector.

Japanese developer Kasumigaseki Properties Development marked its foray into Dubai realty, with its first project to be announced soon.

With more than 525,000 units currently scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, population growth, household formation and project-specific fundamentals will remain important factors in supporting longer-term demand, Savills projected.

Ends